From 1 October 2025, the federal government’s major update to the Home Guarantee Scheme (previously the First Home Guarantee) kicks in.

Mid-October 2025 and the property market has gone up a gear — again. Since the new First Home Buyer changes came into effect on 1 October, we’ve seen a clear surge in buyer activity across almost every capital city and major regional centre.

Open homes are busier. Properties under the new price caps are getting multiple offers within days. And first home buyers are officially back — fuelled by one thing: FOMO.

What Changed on 1 October 2025

The federal government’s update to the Home Guarantee Scheme has completely reshaped the entry-level market.

The major changes include:

No cap on scheme places, meaning eligible buyers aren’t waiting for a limited quota anymore.
Higher property price caps across the board — up to around $1 million in Queensland, $1.5 million in New South Wales, and similar increases nationwide.
Removal of income limits, opening the scheme to a far wider buyer pool.
Still only a 5 % deposit required, with no Lenders Mortgage Insurance.

In plain English: there are now more first home buyers with higher budgets and less upfront cost — all trying to buy at once.

The FOMO Factor Is Driving Behaviour

Within the first two weeks of October, enquiry levels from first home buyers have surged across agencies. Open homes for anything under the new caps are packed.

This spike isn’t just curiosity — it’s urgency.

Buyers who’ve been sitting on the sidelines for months suddenly fear being left behind. Many are worried prices will rise further before the end of the year, especially with record-low housing supply.

Agents are reporting offers coming in faster, often stronger, and with less hesitation. The psychology is clear: “If we don’t buy now, we’ll miss our chance.”

What’s Actually Happening in the Market Right Now

Stock levels remain at record lows, especially in Brisbane, Sydney, and most of regional Queensland.

Entry-level homes are moving within days — particularly anything under $1 million in metro markets.
Competition has intensified, not just between first home buyers but also with investors returning to the market chasing yield.
Price growth is edging up again, especially in affordable suburbs with strong rental demand.
Auction clearance rates are trending higher, and days on market are dropping.

This is a textbook FOMO-driven cycle — high demand, limited supply, and emotional momentum.

What It Means for Buyers

If you’re a first home buyer right now, the key is to stay strategic.

The scheme makes it easier to enter the market, but that doesn’t mean you should rush into the wrong property. Here’s what you need to focus on:

Get pre-approved and ready to move fast. Properties are going under contract within days.
Be clear on your numbers. Just because you can buy at $950 k doesn’t mean you should.
Don’t stretch purely to qualify. The long-term affordability still matters more than short-term access.
Look beyond the obvious. Secondary suburbs with infrastructure growth, solid rental yield, and less emotional competition are where the best opportunities still lie.

What It Means for the Market

Expect the current surge to carry through the rest of 2025.

Entry-level properties will remain in high demand.
Investors are likely to push harder into the same bracket, given solid rental returns.
Prices under $1 million will stay competitive — especially detached homes and townhouses close to key amenities.
Stock shortages will continue to put pressure on buyers, keeping the FOMO alive through summer.

Unless there’s a sudden rise in new listings or a major change to borrowing capacity, this competitive trend isn’t slowing down any time soon.

The First Home Buyer changes have injected serious energy back into the market — and while that’s positive for confidence, it’s also made things more intense for anyone trying to buy.